1. Prediction market

The gap opens again. In the confirmed reading of October 9 at 14:06 BRT, the winner contract pays 87.15% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 18.88M) and 13.50% for Lula (USD 21.20M). Against the confirmed reading of October 8 at 20:38 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.50pp and Lula stays unchanged; since the sum of the pair went from 99.15 to 100.65, the normalized movement is 0.20pp to each side. The gap goes from 72.15pp to 73.65pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 178.53M in the 14:22 BRT reading, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.40% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 14:06 BRT, 0.50pp below the 3.90% of October 8. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 48.30% (USD 25 thousand), ahead of the 4.50% to 4.99% range, with 36.65% (USD 31 thousand), in the 14:22 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

Two national polls, two leaders. In AtlasIntel/Bloomberg, with 5,026 online interviews from October 3 to 8, Flávio Bolsonaro has 51.1% and Lula 45.7%, with 3.2% blank, spoiled and undecided; in valid votes, 52.8% to 47.2%. In the firm's round of October 3, conducted before the first-round vote, Lula had 47.6% and Flávio Bolsonaro 47.4%. In Vox Brasil, with 2,100 in-person interviews from October 5 to 7, Lula has 44.2% and Flávio Bolsonaro 42.7%, within the margin of 2.15 points, with 3.4% blank and spoiled ballots and 9.7% who do not know; in the round of October 2, Flávio Bolsonaro had 48.2% and Lula 45.2%. AtlasIntel measures 53.4% disapproval of the Lula government and 44.7% approval. The poll side of the panel graph is now AtlasIntel, the most recent poll with the largest sample among the national polls that published the total vote.

Correction. The October 8 edition said that PoderData/Aya had only published valid votes. It also published the total: 49% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 44% for Lula, with 5% blank and spoiled ballots and 2% undecided. By the graph's rule, the source on October 8 would have been PoderData/Aya, with the larger sample, and not Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro's number is the same, 49%, and Lula's is 1 point lower. Quaest releases its first national poll of the second round on October 14.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between October 10 and 16. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
10/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00933/2026	0.6
11/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03576/2026	0.7
13/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01209/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-07877/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-05187/2026	0.7
13/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00650/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07997/2026	0.7
14/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08729/2026	0.9

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 8 national polls in the window; 15 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The TSE and the videos. In individual (single-justice) rulings published on October 9, the president of the TSE, Kassio Nunes Marques, ordered the removal of a video by first lady Janja that said Flávio Bolsonaro would end Farmácia Popular, and the vice president, André Mendonça, ordered Lula's campaign to take down posts linking the R$ 200 billion cut proposed by Flávio Bolsonaro to losses in social programs. According to Agência Brasil, the two wrote that the statements about cuts in specific programs have no "minimum basis" in reality, and the rulings still go to the full court of the TSE. Folha de S.Paulo reports the same orders.

The return of campaign advertising. On the first day of the free electoral airtime of the second round, Flávio Bolsonaro promised to keep the social programs and Lula warned of a setback. Lula held his first street rally of the second round defending the end of the 6x1 work schedule and indicated that he will attend the debates, scheduled for October 11, 15, 18 and 23. Flávio Bolsonaro received a phone call from Benjamin Netanyahu with an invitation to visit Israel.

4. Divergences of the day

Poll × poll: with fieldwork in the same week, AtlasIntel gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 5.4 point lead, above the margin of 1 point, and Vox Brasil gives Lula a 1.5 point lead, within the margin of 2.15. The two also measure the undecided differently: blank, spoiled and undecided add up to 3.2% in AtlasIntel and 13.1% in Vox Brasil, with 9.7% who do not know.

Transfer: the voters of Augusto Cury, who declared his support for Flávio Bolsonaro on October 8, go to Lula by 50.4% to 38.9% in AtlasIntel and to Flávio Bolsonaro by 56% to 27% in PoderData/Aya. Among those of Ronaldo Caiado the two agree, with 54.9% to 26.9% and 57% to 19% for Flávio Bolsonaro, according to VEJA.

Market × poll: the winner contract pays more than six times as much for Flávio Bolsonaro as it pays for Lula, and the four national polls conducted after the first-round vote measure anything from a 5.4 point lead for him to a 1.5 point lead for Lula. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the voting intention of the week.

In summary

AtlasIntel and Vox Brasil point to different leaders, with 51.1% to 45.7% for Flávio Bolsonaro in one and 44.2% to 42.7% for Lula in the other.
The winner contract goes to 87.15% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the gap opens to 73.65pp.
The TSE ordered the removal of videos by Lula and by Janja about cuts in social programs, in rulings that still go to the full court.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 9, 14:06 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 9, 2026