1. Prediction market

The gap opens again. In the confirmed reading of October 10 at 19:19 BRT, the winner contract pays 88.15% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 19.26M) and 11.50% for Lula (USD 22.17M). Against the confirmed reading of October 9 at 14:06 BRT, Lula falls 2.00pp and Flávio Bolsonaro rises 1.00pp; since the sum of the pair went from 100.65 to 99.65, the normalized movement is 1.87pp to each side. The gap goes from 73.65pp to 76.65pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 179.88M in the 19:39 BRT reading, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.40% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 19:19 BRT, unchanged from October 9. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 48.70% (USD 25 thousand), ahead of the 4.50% to 4.99% range, with 35.15% (USD 31 thousand), in the 19:39 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

The fifth national poll. In Ipespe/Abrapel, with 1,500 online interviews from October 6 to 8, Flávio Bolsonaro has 49% and Lula 44%, with 5% blank and spoiled ballots and 3% who don't know or didn't answer; in valid votes, 52.7% to 47.3%, a calculation the firm itself calls an exercise. It is the first second-round wave of the firm's Campaign Tracking. In Ipespe, 49% say they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances and 46% say the same of Flávio Bolsonaro, and the Lula government has 50% disapproval and 43% approval.

Four of five. Of the five national polls conducted after the first-round vote, four put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 4 to 5.4 points: Ipespe (49% to 44%), AtlasIntel (51.1% to 45.7%), PoderData/Aya (49% to 44%) and Datafolha (49% to 45%). Vox Brasil puts Lula ahead, by 44.2% to 42.7%. The poll side of the panel graph is now Ipespe, the most recent national poll that published the total vote. DataTrends announced for October 11 its first second-round wave.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 11/Oct and 17/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
11/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03576/2026	0.7
13/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01209/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-07877/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-05187/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07997/2026	0.7
13/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00650/2026	0.7
14/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08729/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-08028/2026	0.7
15/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-01093/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-00466/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-04629/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 11 national polls in the window; 13 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

One debate fewer. Record canceled the October 11 debate, citing scheduling conflicts between the candidates, and the second round has three debates scheduled: October 15 (SBT, RedeTV! and CNN Brasil), October 18 (Band) and October 23 (Globo), in addition to interviews with the two candidates on Globo.

The campaigns. Lula's campaign accused Meta, owner of Instagram and Facebook, of interfering in favor of Flávio Bolsonaro and said it will take the matter to the TSE. In Natal, Lula demanded to know where a R$ 250 billion cut would be made, which he attributes to his opponent. Flávio Bolsonaro said that Jair Bolsonaro will place the presidential sash on him if he is elected. By the count of Poder360, the parties that support Flávio Bolsonaro will have 286 deputies and 50 senators in the next legislature.

4. Divergences of the day

Poll × poll: the voters of Augusto Cury, who declared his support for Flávio Bolsonaro on October 8, go to him by 50% to 29% in Ipespe and by 56% to 27% in PoderData/Aya, and to Lula by 50.4% to 38.9% in AtlasIntel. Ipespe warns that these groups are small within the sample.

Poll × first-round vote: in valid votes, Ipespe measures a 5.4 point lead for Flávio Bolsonaro, against 1.87 points in the first-round tally, and Vox Brasil measures 1.72 points for Lula.

Market × poll: the winner contract pays more than seven times as much for Flávio Bolsonaro as it pays for Lula, while the five national polls conducted after the first-round vote measure anything from a 1.5 point lead for Lula to a 5.4 point lead for him. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the voting intention of the week.

In summary

Ipespe measures 49% to 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and he leads four of the five national polls conducted after the first-round vote.
Lula falls 2.00pp in the winner contract, to 11.50%, and the gap opens to 76.65pp.
Record canceled the October 11 debate, and the second round has three debates scheduled.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

VEJA · Para onde vão os votos de Caiado, Cury e Renan Santos no 2º turno, segundo AtlasIntel

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 10, 19:19 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 10, 2026