1. Prediction market

The gap narrows. In the confirmed reading of October 11 at 17:33 BRT, the winner contract pays 86.65% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 19.50M) and 12.50% for Lula (USD 22.21M). Against the confirmed reading of October 10 at 19:19 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.50pp and Lula rises 1.00pp; since the sum of the pair went from 99.65 to 99.15, the normalized movement is 1.07pp to each side. The gap goes from 76.65pp to 74.15pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 180.19M in the 17:54 BRT reading, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.35% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 17:33 BRT, 0.05pp below the 3.40% of October 10. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 44.65% (USD 25 thousand), ahead of the 4.50% to 4.99% range, with 36.20% (USD 32 thousand), in the 17:54 BRT reading.

2. What the polling firms registered

The sixth national poll. In DataTrends, with 2,000 automated phone interviews from October 7 to 9, Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and Lula 44%, with 5% blank and spoiled ballots and 1% who don't know or didn't answer; in valid votes, 53.1% to 46.9%. It is the firm's first second-round wave. In the same poll, the Lula government has 53% disapproval and 45% approval.

Five of six. Of the six national polls conducted after the first-round vote, five put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 4 to 6 points: DataTrends (50% to 44%), Ipespe (49% to 44%), AtlasIntel (51.1% to 45.7%), PoderData/Aya (49% to 44%) and Datafolha (49% to 45%). Vox Brasil puts Lula ahead, by 44.2% to 42.7%. The poll side of the panel graph is now DataTrends, the most recent national poll that published the total vote.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 12/Oct and 18/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
13/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01209/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-05187/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-07877/2026	0.7
13/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00650/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07997/2026	0.7
14/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08729/2026	0.9
15/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-01093/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-08028/2026	0.7
15/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-00466/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-04629/2026	0.7
16/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04258/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-08771/2026	0.7
16/Oct	MDA	2,002	national	BR-00652/2026	0.9
16/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-03764/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Datavero	1,500	national	BR-02367/2026	0.6

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 15 national polls in the window; 13 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The channel and the video. On October 11, TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques suspended the "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) channel on WhatsApp, which gathers about 3.3 million people, at the request of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign. That same afternoon, the Electoral Justice inspector-general, Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, suspended the decision and reinstated the channel, in a preliminary ruling that goes to the TSE full court. On October 10, Kassio had suspended a video of Lula's campaign in the free electoral airtime that cites Flávio Bolsonaro's relationship with Daniel Vorcaro. Lula said the PT will appeal the suspension of the channel.

The streets. Lula held a rally for his reelection on Avenida Paulista, in São Paulo. Flávio Bolsonaro gathered Tarcísio de Freitas and mayors in the São Paulo state capital and said he will keep Bolsa Família. The second round has three debates scheduled, on October 15, 18 and 23.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: on the same day that DataTrends measured Flávio Bolsonaro's largest lead among the six national polls conducted after the first-round vote, 6 points in the total vote, the winner contract narrowed the gap from 76.65pp to 74.15pp. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the voting intention of the week.

Poll × poll: with fieldwork in the same week, DataTrends gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 6 point lead and Vox Brasil gives Lula a 1.5 point lead. Among the six national polls after the first-round vote, the margin ranges from 1.5 points for Lula to 6 points for Flávio Bolsonaro.

TSE × TSE: the court's president and the inspector-general ruled in opposite directions on the same channel on the same Sunday, and the full court has not yet judged the case.

In summary

DataTrends measures 50% to 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and he leads five of the six national polls conducted after the first-round vote.
The winner contract narrows the gap to 74.15pp, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 86.65% and Lula at 12.50%.
The "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) channel was suspended and reinstated on the same Sunday, and the case goes to the TSE full court.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

Estadão · Nunes Marques atende pedido de Flávio e derruba canal ‘Exército do Lula’ no WhatsApp

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 11, 17:33 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls), TSE results (1st round tally).

October 11, 2026