1. Prediction market

The stalled price. In the confirmed reading of October 12 at 15:00 BRT, the winner contract pays 87.05% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 19.63M) and 12.50% for Lula (USD 22.27M). Against the confirmed reading of October 11 at 17:33 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.40pp and Lula stays unchanged; since the sum of the pair went from 99.15 to 99.55, the normalized movement is 0.05pp to each side. The gap goes from 74.15pp to 74.55pp. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 180.36M in the 16:02 BRT reading, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.15% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 15:00 BRT, 0.20pp below the 3.35% of October 11. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 45.95% (USD 25 thousand), ahead of the 4.50% to 4.99% range, with 37.35% (USD 32 thousand), in the 16:02 BRT reading; on October 11 they were 44.65% and 36.20%.

2. What the polling firms registered

No new national poll. The TSE registry had no national poll scheduled for release on October 12, and the most recent one is still DataTrends of October 11, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 50% and Lula at 44%. Of the six national polls conducted after the first-round vote, five put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 4 to 6 points, and Vox Brasil puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points.

The expectation of victory. On the night of October 11, PoderData/Aya released the expectation breakdown of the October 5 to 7 wave, the same one published on October 8: 54% of voters think Flávio Bolsonaro wins the second round and 37% that Lula wins. In the October 3 wave, the eve of the first round, it was 45% and 48%. It is the question about who will win, not the voting intention.

The consultancy. Eurasia Group raised from 70% to 80% the probability it assigns to a Flávio Bolsonaro victory, in a report released on October 11 and signed by Christopher Garman. The estimate is the consultancy's, not a poll.

The week. The TSE registry has 15 national polls scheduled for release from October 13 to 16, the first full wave of the second round, and the press confirms Quaest on Wednesday and Datafolha on Thursday.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 13/Oct and 16/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
13/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-01209/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-05187/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-07877/2026	0.7
13/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-00650/2026	0.7
13/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-07997/2026	0.7
14/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08729/2026	0.9
15/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-01093/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-08028/2026	0.7
15/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-00466/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-04629/2026	0.7
16/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04258/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-08771/2026	0.7
16/Oct	MDA	2,002	national	BR-00652/2026	0.9
16/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-03764/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Datavero	1,500	national	BR-02367/2026	0.6

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 15 national polls in the window; 11 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The visits. On October 12, Alexandre de Moraes authorized Flávio Bolsonaro to resume visits to his father, Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, and barred the release of statements by the former president with a political-electoral purpose. The visits had been suspended for 90 days, since a letter of support was released in July. Flávio Bolsonaro said, after the Mass of Our Lady of Aparecida at the Brasília Cathedral, that he will visit his father on October 13.

The channel and the TSE. The TSE office for countering disinformation said in a report of October 12 that it had not found in the "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) channel, from October 2 to 11, the false posts pointed out by Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign, but it flagged risk from polarizing language and deleted messages. TSE president Kassio Nunes Marques summoned both campaigns to a meeting on October 13. Lula said the court's president cannot take sides. On October 11, Justice André Mendonça barred Lula's campaign from boosting ads saying that Flávio Bolsonaro is against ending the 6x1 work schedule (six days on, one off), a decision also reported by Agência Brasil.

The streets and the agenda. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro attended Masses in Brasília on the holiday, and Flávio Bolsonaro's TV ad aired without sound. Tarcísio de Freitas and Ricardo Nunes confirmed a pro-Flávio rally on Avenida Paulista on October 18. As the pro-Lula rally of October 11 dispersed, the Military Police reported vandalism and graffiti at subway stations, and on October 12 Lula's coalition filed a complaint with the TSE against Flávio Bolsonaro and five other people over posts that link the rally to vandalism and drugs, among them a video recorded in Chile. The Senate scheduled for October 14 the vote on the proposal to end the 6x1 work schedule.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × consultancy: the winner contract pays 87.05% for Flávio Bolsonaro, 7.05 points above the 80% that Eurasia Group assigns to him. Both measure the same thing, the chance of winning on October 25, by different methods: one is a market price, the other is an analysts' assessment.

Expectation × intention: in the same PoderData/Aya wave, 54% think Flávio Bolsonaro wins, while the voting intention gave 49% to 44% in the total vote and 53% to 47% in valid votes. The margin is 17 points in expectation and 5 in the total vote.

TSE × TSE: the report that Kassio Nunes Marques requested did not find in the channel, in the period examined, the posts cited in the request he granted on October 11, and the full court has not yet judged the case.

In summary

The winner contract stays practically still, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 87.05%, Lula at 12.50% and the gap at 74.55pp.
Eurasia assigns 80% to Flávio Bolsonaro, below the price, and the week has 15 national polls registered from October 13 to 16.
Moraes cleared Flávio Bolsonaro's visits to his father, and the TSE technical staff did not find in the "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) channel the falsehoods pointed out in the suspension request.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 12, 15:00 BRT and re-reading at 16:02 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

October 12, 2026