1. Prediction market

The gap narrows. In the confirmed reading of October 13 at 16:14 BRT, the winner contract pays 86.45% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 19.80M) and 13.50% for Lula (USD 22.49M). Against the confirmed reading of October 12 at 15:00 BRT, Lula rises 1.00pp and Flávio Bolsonaro falls 0.60pp; since the sum of the pair went from 99.55 to 99.95, the normalized movement is 0.95pp to each side. The gap goes from 74.55pp to 72.95pp. In the 19:04 BRT re-reading, Flávio Bolsonaro was at 86.25% and Lula at 13.50%, and the total accumulated volume in the presidential book added up to USD 180.94M. The largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.35% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 16:14 BRT, 0.80pp below the 3.15% of October 12. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range leads with 46.50% (USD 25 thousand) in the 19:04 BRT reading, and the 4.50% to 4.99% range falls from 37.35% to 26.90% (USD 32 thousand) against October 12, while the 5.50% to 5.99% range rises from 12.55% to 16.05% (USD 21 thousand). The Focus Bulletin of October 12 raised the 2026 IPCA projection from 5.01% to 5.22%.

2. What the polling firms registered

Four national polls. PoderData/Aya, with 3,000 interviews from October 10 to 12, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 48% and Lula 46%, 51% to 49% in valid votes. BTG/Nexus, with 2,002 interviews on the same days, gives 48% to 45%, 52% to 48% in valid votes. Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 interviews from October 7 to 10, gives 50% to 46.6%, 51.8% to 48.2% in valid votes. Gerp, released on the night of October 12, with 2,400 interviews on October 8, 9 and 12, gives 53% to 44%, 55% to 45% in valid votes.

The post-vote map. Of the ten national polls conducted after the first round, nine put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 2 to 9 points in total votes, and Vox Brasil of October 9 puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points. In PoderData/Aya, the margin falls from 5 points in the October 5 to 7 wave to 2 in the October 10 to 12 wave, within the margin of error of 1.8 points. On rejection, 46% would not vote for Lula under any circumstances and 44% would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro in PoderData/Aya; in BTG/Nexus, 51% and 47%. The poll side of the panel's graph is now PoderData/Aya, the largest sample among the national polls of October 13.

The registry. Two of the week's commitments left the TSE registry: AtlasIntel of October 15 and Vox Brasil of October 16, which has another national poll registered for October 18. The press confirms Quaest on October 14 and Datafolha on October 15.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 14/Oct and 18/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
14/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08729/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-08028/2026	0.7
15/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-00466/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-04629/2026	0.7
16/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04258/2026	0.7
16/Oct	MDA	2,002	national	BR-00652/2026	0.9
16/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-03764/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Datavero	1,500	national	BR-02367/2026	0.6
17/Oct	Veritá	15,554	national	BR-01107/2026	0.7
17/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00223/2026	0.6
18/Oct	Instituto Phoenix	3,999	national	BR-08809/2026	0.7
18/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-04332/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 12 national polls in the window; 8 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 2 national polls left the TSE registry after being registered and are therefore not a commitment. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The 6x1 and the MDB. After visiting his father, Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, Flávio Bolsonaro said he will vote in favor of ending the 6x1 work schedule (six days on, one off) in the Senate and asked for compensation for companies; Lula attributed the change to pressure from society. The Senate has the vote on the proposal scheduled for October 14. In São Paulo, alongside Tarcísio de Freitas and Ricardo Nunes, MDB president Baleia Rossi formalized the support of 17 state branches for Flávio Bolsonaro, and ten branches from the North and Northeast declared support for Lula.

The TSE. Kassio Nunes Marques took down the "Exército do Lula" (Lula's Army) channel again, overturning the decision of inspector general (Corregedor-Geral) Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva, and required the channel to be registered with the Electoral Court; Lula's campaign registered it the same day, and Kassio authorized its resumption, which only takes effect 48 hours after the registration. Kassio also brought the two campaigns together and demanded actions against confrontations. Justice André Mendonça ordered Lula's posts removed within three hours that link the "tesouraço", a fiscal squeeze proposed by Flávio Bolsonaro, to cuts in social programs, with a fine of R$ 10 thousand for noncompliance.

The agenda. Lula announced Prospera MEI, with an estimated forgiveness of R$ 12.6 billion in debts of microentrepreneurs and a Pix payment of up to R$ 5 thousand, with part of it scheduled only from 2027 onward, and promised a Pé-de-Meia for university students if he is reelected. Flávio Bolsonaro said he will not attend the Band debate, scheduled for October 18, and that he is weighing the Globo one, on October 23.

4. Divergences of the day

Poll × poll: with fieldwork closed on the same October 12, Gerp measures 9 points for Flávio Bolsonaro and PoderData/Aya measures 2. Among the four of October 12 and 13, the margin ranges from 2 to 9 points in total votes.

Market × poll: on the day the four national polls measured Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, the winner contract narrowed the gap from 74.55pp to 72.95pp, with Lula rising 1.00pp. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the week's voting intention.

Market × Focus: the leading range in the 2026 inflation contract, 5.00% to 5.49%, contains the 5.22% that the Focus Bulletin projects for the year, and the 4.50% to 4.99% range lost 10.45 points against October 12.

In summary

Four national polls measure Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 2 to 9 points, and nine of the ten conducted after the vote put him in the lead.
The winner contract narrows the gap to 72.95pp, with Lula at 13.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 86.45%.
Flávio Bolsonaro votes to end the 6x1 and receives the formal support of the MDB, with ten of the party's branches on Lula's side.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 13, 16:14 BRT and re-reading at 19:04 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

October 13, 2026