1. Prediction market

The gap narrows again. In the confirmed reading of October 14 at 18:12 BRT, the winner contract pays 85.00% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 20.12M) and 14.50% for Lula (USD 23.09M). Against the confirmed reading of October 13 at 16:14 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.45pp and Lula rises 1.00pp; since the sum of the pair went from 99.95 to 99.50, the normalized movement is 1.07pp to each side. The gap goes from 72.95pp to 70.50pp, after having gone from 74.55pp to 72.95pp on October 13. In the 18:33 BRT re-reading, Flávio Bolsonaro was at 85.05% and Lula at 14.50%, and the total accumulated volume in the presidential book added up to USD 181.67M. The largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.70% (USD 0.10M) in the confirmed reading of 18:12 BRT, 0.35pp above the 2.35% of October 13. In the 2026 inflation one, the 5.00% to 5.49% range rises from 46.50% to 50.20% (USD 25 thousand) in the 18:33 BRT reading, against the October 13 one at 19:04 BRT; the 5.50% to 5.99% range goes from 16.05% to 21.05% (USD 21 thousand), and the 4.50% to 4.99% range falls from 26.90% to 18.70% (USD 32 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Quaest. Quaest, with 2,154 face-to-face interviews from October 10 to 13, commissioned by Grupo Globo, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 46% and Lula 44%, with 9% blank and spoiled ballots and 1% undecided; in the second-round scenario of the October 3 wave, on the eve of the first round, it was 44% and 42%. Flávio Bolsonaro is rejected by 54% and Lula by 53%, and the Lula government is disapproved of by 48% and approved of by 45%, against 49% and 45% in the previous wave.

The votes of the eliminated candidates. In the same poll, 34% of Augusto Cury's voters go to Lula and 30% to Flávio Bolsonaro; among those of Renan Santos, 40% go to Flávio Bolsonaro and 14% to Lula, and among those of Ronaldo Caiado, 42% go to Flávio Bolsonaro. Among those who spoiled their ballot, voted blank or did not vote on October 4, 43% declare a vote for Lula and 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro.

The post-vote map. Of the eleven national polls conducted after the first round, ten put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 2 to 9 points in total votes, and Vox Brasil of October 9 puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points. The poll side of the panel's graph is now Quaest, the most recent national poll that published total votes. AtlasIntel, whose October 15 wave left the TSE registry, registered another one, of 5,000 interviews, for October 19.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 15/Oct and 19/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Date	Firm	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
15/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-08028/2026	0.7
15/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-00466/2026	0.9
15/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-04629/2026	0.7
16/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-04258/2026	0.7
16/Oct	MDA	2,002	national	BR-00652/2026	0.9
16/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-03764/2026	0.7
16/Oct	Datavero	1,500	national	BR-02367/2026	0.6
17/Oct	Veritá	15,554	national	BR-01107/2026	0.7
17/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-00223/2026	0.6
18/Oct	Instituto Phoenix	3,999	national	BR-08809/2026	0.7
18/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-04332/2026	0.7
19/Oct	AtlasIntel	5,000	national	BR-02418/2026	0.9
19/Oct	PoderData	3,000	national	BR-02586/2026	0.7
19/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-04454/2026	0.7
19/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-06715/2026	0.7
19/Oct	Nexus	2,000	national	BR-04499/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 16 national polls in the window; 6 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 2 national polls left the TSE registry after being registered and are therefore not a commitment. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The Senate. The Senate Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) approved the Public Security PEC on the morning of October 14, and the plenary began voting the same day on the PEC to end the 6x1 work schedule (six days on, one off), which Flávio Bolsonaro said on October 13 he will support; as of 18:30 BRT there was no result.

The debate. Flávio Bolsonaro, who on October 13 had said he would not attend the Band debate, said on October 14 that he will go, after Lula confirmed his attendance. The Band one, on October 18, is the first of the second round, and the Globo one is scheduled for October 23, with interviews of the two candidates on Globo on October 15 and 16.

The TSE and Meta. Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze gave Nikolas Ferreira and Flávio Bolsonaro 24 hours, with a deadline of the night of October 14, to remove a video that uses children to criticize Lula, according to Estadão. Lula's campaign filed a complaint with the TSE against Meta after reports showed that WhatsApp's AI created campaign images for "Flávio 22" but not for "Lula 13" or "Flávio Bolsonaro 22".

The agenda. Lula regulated the video game law with a promise of cheaper credit for the sector, one day after announcing Prospera MEI.

4. Divergences of the day

Intention × rejection: in Quaest, Flávio Bolsonaro leads in voting intention by 46% to 44% and has 54% rejection against 53% for Lula, a difference within the 2-point margin. The two numbers come from the same sample and measure different questions.

Poll × poll: with fieldwork overlapping on October 12, Quaest measures 2 points for Flávio Bolsonaro and Gerp, 9. The margin among the eleven post-vote national polls ranges from 1.5 points for Lula to 9 for Flávio Bolsonaro.

Market × poll: on the day Quaest measured a statistical tie, the winner contract paid 85.00% for Flávio Bolsonaro, with the gap narrowing 2.45pp against October 13. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures the week's voting intention.

In summary

Quaest measures 46% to 44% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a statistical tie, and ten of the eleven post-vote national polls put him ahead.
The gap in the winner contract narrows for the second day, to 70.50pp, with Lula at 14.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 85.00%.
Flávio Bolsonaro reverses course and will attend the Band debate, on October 18, the first of the second round.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 14, 18:12 BRT and re-reading at 18:33 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

October 14, 2026