October 15, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap narrows for the third day. In the confirmed reading of October 15 at 17:37 BRT, the winner contract pays 77.25% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 20.75M) and 22.50% for Lula (USD 24.63M). Against the confirmed reading of October 14 at 18:12 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 7.75pp and Lula rises 8.00pp; since the sum of the pair went from 99.50 to 99.75, the normalized movement is 7.98pp to each side. The gap goes from 70.50pp to 54.75pp, after going from 74.55pp to 72.95pp on October 13 and from 72.95pp to 70.50pp on October 14. In the 19:31 BRT re-reading, Flávio Bolsonaro was at 77.70% and Lula at 22.50%, and the total accumulated volume in the presidential book added up to USD 183.97M. The largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.70% (USD 0.10M), the same as the October 14 reading. In the 2026 inflation one, in the 19:31 BRT reading against the October 14 one at 18:33 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 50.20% to 51.10% (USD 25 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 21.05% to 20.40% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 18.70% to 17.40% (USD 32 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Datafolha. Datafolha, with 2,520 face-to-face interviews from October 13 to 15, commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 47% and Lula 45%, with 6% blank and spoiled ballots and 2% undecided; in valid votes, 51% to 49%. In the October 8 wave it was 49% to 45%, and 52% to 48% in valid votes. Lula is rejected by 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro by 44%, and the Lula government has a negative rating of 41% and a positive rating of 35%.

Palver and Indexa. Palver, with 5,000 online interviews from October 10 to 13, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 50% and Lula 49%, with no undecided; on October 3, the eve of the first round, it was 49% and 44%. Indexa, commissioned by Estadão/Broadcast, with 2,000 telephone interviews on October 13 and 14, gives 44% to 42% to Flávio Bolsonaro in total votes and 51% to 49% in valid votes, and measures the Lula government as disapproved of by 50%.

The post-vote map. Of the fourteen national polls conducted after the first round, thirteen put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 1 to 9 points in total votes, and Vox Brasil of October 9 puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points. The poll side of the panel's graph is now Palver, the one with the largest sample among the day's three national polls.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 16/Oct and 20/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 17 national polls in the window; 10 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 1 national poll left the TSE registry after being registered and is therefore not a commitment. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The 6x1 schedule. The Senate approved on the night of October 14 the PEC to end the 6x1 work schedule (six days on, one off), which reduces the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours, by 75 votes to 1 in both rounds of voting; the only vote against was Hamilton Mourão's, and the promulgation is expected for the following week. Flávio Bolsonaro voted in favor, remotely. Lula promised to send a PEC for free public transport on weekends.

The TSE. The TSE plenary, unanimously, struck down on October 15 the 48-hour wait to reactivate WhatsApp channels registered after the deadline, after Kassio Nunes Marques had cleared the Exército do Lula (Lula's Army) channel on the night of October 14. The court also overturned a decision by André Mendonça and ordered the removal of videos that link Lula to the alleged fraud at the INSS, according to Folha de S.Paulo and Estadão. Flávio Bolsonaro asked the TSE to revoke the registration of Lula's ticket over funding from unions. Kassio Nunes Marques and Mendonça met with Meta.

The debates. The debate of the broadcaster pool of SBT, RedeTV!, CNN Brasil and other outlets, scheduled for October 15, was called off, as was the Record one of October 11. What remains is the Band one, on October 18, the first between the two, and the Globo one, on October 23. Lula's interview on Jornal Nacional is scheduled for the night of October 15, and Flávio Bolsonaro's for October 16. Renan Santos said he does not support Lula and will not vote.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Datafolha measures 47% to 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and thirteen of the fourteen post-vote national polls put him ahead.
2. The gap in the winner contract narrows for the third day, to 54.75pp, with Lula at 22.50% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 77.25%.
3. The Senate approved the end of the 6x1 schedule and the October 15 debate was called off; the first is the Band one, on October 18.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · TSE derruba espera de 48 horas para reativar canais de WhatsApp como 'Exército do Lula'
• Folha de S.Paulo · TSE derruba decisão de Mendonça e barra posts em que Flávio associa Lula a escândalo do INSS
• Estadão · TSE decide pela remoção de vídeos que associam Lula a supostas fraudes no INSS
• Diário dos Campos · Emissoras de TV cancelam debates para o segundo turno; confira a nova programação

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 51% e Lula, 49% dos votos válidos, um empate técnico
• G1 · Datafolha, 2º turno: Flávio Bolsonaro, 47%; Lula, 45%
• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Lula é rejeitado por 46%, e Flávio Bolsonaro, por 44%
• Folha de S.Paulo · Datafolha: Governo Lula tem avaliação negativa de 41% e positiva de 35%
• Poder360 · Flávio tem 50% e Lula tem 49% a 10 dias do 2º turno, diz Palver
• UOL Notícias · Flávio Bolsonaro tem 44% ante 42% de Lula, em empate técnico, mostra pesquisa Indexa/Broadcast
• CNN Brasil · Indexa/Broadcast: Lula é desaprovado por 50%; aprovação é de 45%
• G1 · Em vitória de Lula, Senado aprova PEC do fim da escala 6x1 e trabalhador terá dois dias de folga por semana
• BBC · Fim da 6x1: Hamilton Mourão foi o único contra; veja o placar e todos os votos dos senadores
• CNN Brasil · Flávio Bolsonaro vota à distância pelo fim da escala 6x1
• Folha de S.Paulo · Lula promete enviar PEC que garante transporte gratuito aos finais de semana após aprovação do fim da 6x1
• UOL Notícias · Flávio pede para TSE cassar chapa da Lula por financiamento de sindicatos
• Gazeta do Povo · Meta esclarece a Nunes Marques funcionamento de IA sobre Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro
• O Globo · Debate da Band: veja data, horário e como assistir ao primeiro embate entre Flávio e Lula nas eleições 2026
• CartaCapital · Agenda dos candidatos: Lula dá entrevista à ‘Globo’; Flávio Bolsonaro faz comício em MG
• O Globo · Renan Santos diz que perigo 'é maior com Flávio', mas descarta apoio a Lula: 'Eu não vou votar, votem em quem quiserem'

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 15, 17:37 BRT and re-reading at 19:31 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).