October 16, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap narrows for the fourth day. In the confirmed reading of October 16 at 17:01 BRT, the winner contract pays 76.45% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 21.23M) and 23.50% for Lula (USD 25.11M). Against the confirmed reading of October 15 at 17:37 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 0.80pp and Lula rises 1.00pp; since the sum of the pair went from 99.75 to 99.95, the normalized movement is 0.96pp to each side. The gap goes from 54.75pp to 52.95pp, after going from 72.95pp to 70.50pp on October 14 and from 70.50pp to 54.75pp on October 15. The total accumulated volume in the presidential book adds up to USD 184.80M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.70% (USD 0.10M), the same as the October 15 reading. In the 2026 inflation one, in the 17:02 BRT reading against the October 15 one at 19:31 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 51.10% to 60.80% (USD 27 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 20.40% to 18.40% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 17.40% to 17.00% (USD 32 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

CNT/MDA. CNT/MDA, with 2,002 face-to-face interviews from October 13 to 15, commissioned by the Confederação Nacional do Transporte (National Transport Confederation), gives Flávio Bolsonaro 46.8% and Lula 45.9% in the prompted question, with 4.9% blank and null votes and 2.4% undecided; in valid votes, 50.5% to 49.5%. In the October 3 wave, the eve of the first round, the firm's second-round scenario gave Lula 47.3% and Flávio Bolsonaro 43.1%. The Lula government has a negative rating of 39.5% and a positive rating of 37.8%.

Futura and PoderData. Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 telephone interviews on October 14 and 15, gives 49% to 47.5% to Flávio Bolsonaro in total votes and 50.8% to 49.2% in valid votes; in the October 13 wave it was 50% to 46.6%. PoderData/Aya, with 3,000 telephone interviews from October 13 to 15, measures 50% to 50% in valid votes and did not publish total votes; in valid votes, Flávio Bolsonaro's lead was 6 points in the October 5 to 7 wave and 2 in the October 10 to 12 one.

The post-vote map. Of the seventeen national polls conducted after the first round, fifteen put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, by 0.9 to 9 points in total votes, Vox Brasil of October 9 puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measures a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's graph is now CNT/MDA, the one with the largest sample among the day's two national polls that published total votes.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 17/Oct and 21/Oct. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication, because firms can delay or cancel the release. Filters applied: national scope and a sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration linked to the TSE public lookup.

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists the 16 national polls in the window; 13 registrations from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 2 registrations marked as national were left out because the registration itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered and not published.

3. What the press covered

The 6x1 schedule. Congress promulgated on October 16 the PEC to end the 6x1 work schedule, in a ceremony with Lula and the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta, and without opposition senators; the Senate approved it on October 14 by 75 votes to 1. After the promulgation, Lula said the 6x1 schedule will return if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the election.

The TSE and Meta. The TSE plenary unanimously approved, on October 16, rules that tie to the campaigns the WhatsApp channels that receive money, technical support or guidance from them, with a registration requirement; the rapporteur was André Mendonça. Justice Ricardo Villas Bôas Cueva denied the request of Flávio Bolsonaro's campaign to restrict the activity of unions and students on social media. Meta denied interfering in the election and attributed to a gap in its safeguards the fact that its AI produced campaign material for Flávio Bolsonaro and not for Lula; in internal messages, according to Folha de S.Paulo, the company admitted that Lula's accounts were harmed by restrictions.

The interviews and the debate. In the Jornal Nacional interview, on the night of October 15, Lula defended lowering the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16 for heinous crimes. Flávio Bolsonaro's interview is scheduled for the night of October 16, and the Band debate, on October 18, is the first between the two. The former mayor of Fortaleza Roberto Cláudio, who ran in the first round as Ciro Gomes's running mate in Ceará, declared support for Flávio Bolsonaro.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Three national polls measure the race within the margin: CNT/MDA 46.8% to 45.9%, Futura 49% to 47.5% and PoderData with a tie in valid votes.
2. The gap in the winner contract goes to 52.95pp, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.45% and Lula at 23.50%.
3. Congress promulgated the end of the 6x1 schedule and the TSE approved rules for WhatsApp channels; the Band debate, on October 18, is the first between the two.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Congresso promulga PEC do fim da escala 6x1 com Lula em clima de campanha
• G1 · Apesar de votos a favor, nenhum senador da oposição comparece à promulgação da PEC que acaba com a escala 6x1
• Gazeta do Povo · TSE aprova por unanimidade restrições a canais de WhatsApp das campanhas
• O Globo · Meta admite falhas envolvendo contas de Lula e nega interferência nas eleições
• G1 · Candidato a vice de Ciro Gomes, Roberto Cláudio declara apoio a Flávio Bolsonaro

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Congresso em Foco · Pesquisa CNT/MDA aponta Flávio com 46,8% e Lula com 45,9% de votos
• CNN Brasil · CNT/MDA: Flávio tem 50,5% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 49,5%
• Metrópoles · CNT/MDA: 39,5% avaliam governo Lula como negativo e 37,8% como positivo
• Money Times · Flávio Bolsonaro tem 49% e Lula, 47,5%, aponta pesquisa Futura
• CNN Brasil · Futura: Flávio tem 50,8% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 49,2%
• Poder360 · Flávio e Lula empatam em 50% dos votos válidos, diz PoderData/Aya
• CNN Brasil · PoderData/AYA: Flávio e Lula empatam com 50% dos votos válidos no 2º turno
• Valor Econômico · Lula diz que escala 6x1 será retomada se Flávio Bolsonaro ganhar a eleição
• Agência Brasil · TSE nega pedido da campanha de Flávio para barrar posts de sindicatos
• G1 · Meta nega interferência política nas eleições do Brasil e cita incidentes técnicos em redes de Lula
• Folha de S.Paulo · Meta admite conta de Lula prejudicada em mensagem interna - 16/10/2026 - Política
• Agência Brasil · Lula defende redução da maioridade penal para crimes hediondos
• Valor Econômico · Que horas é a entrevista de Flávio Bolsonaro na Globo? Veja horário e onde assistir
• Gazeta do Povo · Debate na Band promete 1º confronto direto entre Flávio e Lula
• CartaCapital · CNT/MDA mostra empate técnico entre Flávio e Lula a 9 dias do 2º turno
• Exame · Pesquisa PoderData/Aya: Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro empatam com 50% dos votos válidos
• Exame · Futura: Flávio tem 50,8% e Lula, 49,2%, no 2º turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 16, 17:01 BRT and inflation book reading at 17:02 BRT), TSE registry (official electoral polls).