October 17, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap widens by half a point. In the confirmed reading of October 17 at 16:59 BRT, the winner contract pays 76.95% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 21.50M) and 23.50% for Lula (USD 25.39M). Against the confirmed reading of October 16 at 17:01 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 0.50pp and Lula holds steady; since the pair's sum went from 99.95 to 100.45, the normalized move is 0.12pp for each side. The gap goes from 52.95pp to 53.45pp, after four straight days of narrowing that took it from 72.95pp on October 13 to 52.95pp on October 16. Total cumulative volume in the presidential market comes to USD 185.34M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.70% (USD 0.10M), the same as the October 16 reading. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 17:25 BRT reading against the October 16 reading at 17:02 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% band goes from 60.80% to 60.15% (USD 27 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% band from 18.40% to 16.35% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% band from 17.00% to 16.70% (USD 32 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

The Gerp poll from the night of October 16. Released after the October 16 edition closed, Gerp, with 2,400 phone interviews from October 14 to 16, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 50% and Lula 45% in total votes and 52% to 48% in valid votes; in the October 8 to 12 wave it was 53% to 44% in total votes. In the same poll, 49% reject Lula and 46% reject Flávio Bolsonaro.

Ipespe and Veritá. Ipespe/Abrapel, with 1,500 phone interviews from October 13 to 15, gives Flávio Bolsonaro 48% and Lula 46%, with 3% blank and null votes and 3% who do not know, and 51.2% to 48.8% in valid votes; in the October 6 to 8 wave it was 49% to 44%. In the same wave, 47% would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro under any circumstances and another 47% would not vote for Lula. Veritá, with 15,554 interviews from October 12 to 16, publishes only valid votes: 51.1% for Flávio Bolsonaro and 48.9% for Lula. The pollster uses automated phone interviews and builds its national estimate from state surveys.

The post-vote map. Of the twenty national polls conducted after the first round, eighteen put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, seventeen of them by 0.9 to 9 points in total votes and Veritá by 2.2 points in valid votes; Vox Brasil of October 9 puts Lula ahead by 1.5 points, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measures a tie in valid votes. From the previous wave to the current one, the distance in total votes falls from 5 to 2 points in Ipespe/Abrapel and from 9 to 5 in Gerp. The poll side of the panel's chart is now Ipespe/Abrapel, the only national poll of the day that published total votes.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 18/Oct and 22/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 17 national polls in the window; 16 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 3 records marked as national were left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

Flávio Bolsonaro's interview. On Jornal Nacional, on the night of October 16, Flávio Bolsonaro said he only needs one term and that he will not run for reelection even if Congress does not approve the amendment that would end it (UOL). He also said Eduardo Bolsonaro will not be foreign minister and that appointing his father, Jair Bolsonaro, is "not on the radar". In the October 13 and 14 wave, Datafolha measures 51% in favour of ending reelection and 46% for the current rule.

Lula and the debate. The PT president, Edinho Silva, said Lula wants the confrontation in the Band debate (Valor). The October 18 debate will have a 30-minute free-confrontation segment, and Globo's is scheduled for October 23.

Eurasia and Meta. The consultancy Eurasia Group lowered from 80% to 75% the probability it assigns to a Flávio Bolsonaro victory, citing the smaller distance in the polls. According to Folha de S.Paulo, the Flávio Bolsonaro campaign pressed Meta at the TSE and said it had also been harmed, after the company admitted, on October 16, restrictions that affected Lula's accounts.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Three new national polls put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead: Ipespe/Abrapel 48% to 46%, Gerp 50% to 45% and Veritá 51.1% to 48.9% in valid votes.
2. The gap in the winner contract reaches 53.45pp, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 76.95% and Lula at 23.50%.
3. Flávio Bolsonaro said on Jornal Nacional that he only needs one term; the Band debate, on October 18, is the first between the two.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• G1 · Flávio Bolsonaro diz que 'não está no radar' nomear o pai e que Eduardo não será chanceler em eventual governo
• Valor · Lula quer confronto e vai desmascarar Flávio Bolsonaro em debate, diz Edinho
• Folha de S.Paulo · Debate da Band entre Lula e Flávio terá confronto livre de 30 minutos; veja regras
• Valor · Probabilidade de vitória cai para 75%, mas Flávio segue favorito sobre Lula, diz Eurasia

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Gazeta do Povo · Os números da pesquisa Gerp para presidente no 2º turno
• Poder360 · Flávio tem 52% e Lula, 48% dos votos válidos no 2º turno, diz Gerp
• CNN Brasil · Gerp: 49% rejeitam voto em Lula; 46%, em Flávio Bolsonaro
• Exame · Pesquisa para presidente: Flávio tem 48% e Lula, 46%, aponta Ipespe
• CNN Brasil · Ipespe/Abrapel: Flávio tem 51,2% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48,8%
• CNN Brasil · Ipespe: Flávio e Lula são igualmente rejeitados por 47% dos eleitores
• CNN Brasil · Veritá: Flávio tem 51,1% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48,9%
• Exame · Como o Veritá cravou o resultado do 1º turno das eleições de 2026? Fundador explica
• Sul 21 · Ipespe: Vantagem de Flávio Bolsonaro para Lula cai 3 pontos
• Poder360 · Se eleito, Flávio quer fim da reeleição já para seu mandato; entenda
• UOL Notícias · Em sabatina do JN, Flávio diz que respeitará resultado da eleição
• Valor Econômico · Flávio diz que 'não está no radar' dar cargo para Jair Bolsonaro e nega nomear Eduardo chanceler, se eleito
• Poder360 · Datafolha: 51% apoiam fim da reeleição para presidente e governadores
• Poder360 · Lula está animado para “confronto” com Flávio, diz Edinho Silva
• CNN Brasil · Eurasia: Flávio tem 75% de chance de vencer Lula e virada é improvável
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro cobra Meta no TSE e também se diz prejudicado após restrições contra Lula

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 17 16:59 BRT and inflation book reading at 17:25 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).