October 18, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap widens by 5.30 points. In the confirmed reading of October 18 at 17:44 BRT, the winner contract pays 79.25% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 22.57M) and 20.50% for Lula (USD 26.35M). Against the confirmed reading of October 17 at 16:59 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 2.30pp and Lula falls 3.00pp; since the pair's sum went from 100.45 to 99.75, the normalized move is 2.84pp for each side. The gap goes from 53.45pp to 58.75pp, below the 72.95pp of October 13. Total cumulative volume in the presidential market comes to USD 187.29M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 1.50% (USD 0.10M), 1.20pp below the October 17 reading. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 17:36 BRT reading against the October 17 reading at 17:25 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% band goes from 60.15% to 70.05% (USD 28 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% band from 16.35% to 14.90% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% band from 16.70% to 13.25% (USD 32 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Vox Brasil. Vox Brasil, with 2,100 in-person household interviews from October 15 to 17, gives Lula 46.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro 44.6% in total votes, with 5% none, blank or null and 3.9% who do not know, and 51% to 49% in valid votes; the margin is 2.15 points. In the October 5 to 7 wave it was 44.2% to 42.7%. In the same poll, 46.9% think Lula wins and 41.6% bet on Flávio Bolsonaro, and both are rejected by 45.3%. Fieldwork ended before the Band debate.

The post-vote map. Of the twenty-one national polls conducted after the first round, eighteen put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, seventeen of them by 0.9 to 9 points in total votes and Veritá by 2.2 points in valid votes; the two Vox Brasil polls, of October 9 and 18, put Lula ahead, by 1.5 and 1.8 points, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measures a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's chart is now Vox Brasil, the only national poll of the day that published total votes.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 19/Oct and 23/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 20 national polls in the window; 23 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 4 records marked as national were left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The rallies of October 18. Flávio Bolsonaro gathered supporters on Avenida Paulista and said Jair Bolsonaro will put the presidential sash on him; at its peak, the rally drew 71.9 thousand people by the USP methodology, according to G1. Lula's supporters held rallies in state capitals, among them São Paulo, Rio and Brasília.

The Band debate. The first direct face-off between the two is scheduled for the night of October 18, on Band, with a free-confrontation segment; Globo's is scheduled for October 23. Both campaigns are competing for the streets in the final stretch and are prioritizing the Southeast in the last week.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. Vox Brasil puts Lula ahead for the second time after the vote: 46.4% to 44.6% in total votes, 51% to 49% in valid votes.
2. The winner contract moves the other way: Flávio Bolsonaro at 79.25%, Lula at 20.50%, and the gap at 58.75pp.
3. Flávio Bolsonaro held a rally on Paulista and Lula's supporters held rallies in state capitals; the Band debate, on the night of October 18, is the first between the two.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Capitais têm atos pró-Lula uma semana antes do segundo turno
• Valor · Lula e Flávio disputam as ruas na reta final da campanha

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Sul 21 · Vox Brasil: Lula tem 46,4% e Flávio Bolsonaro tem 44,6%
• Poder360 · Lula tem 51% contra 49% de Flávio em votos válidos, diz Vox
• CNN Brasil · Vox: Lula e Flávio são igualmente rejeitados por 45,3%
• Metrópoles · Vox Brasil: com empate técnico, Lula tem 46,4% e Flávio Bolsonaro 44,6%
• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro reúne apoiadores na Paulista em manifestação e fala que o país está 'sem presidente'
• CartaCapital · Flávio promete receber faixa presidencial das mãos de Bolsonaro em ato na Paulista
• G1 · No ápice, ato de Flávio Bolsonaro na Paulista reúne 71,9 mil pessoas, segundo metodologia da USP
• O Globo · Apoiadores de Lula fazem atos em São Paulo, Rio e Brasília; Flávio participa de evento na Paulista
• Band · Debate entre Flávio e Lula acontece neste domingo (18); saiba como assistir
• Jovem Pan · Debate Band/Jovem Pan: veja regras do 1º confronto entre Flávio e Lula neste domingo
• Poder360 · Lula e Flávio priorizam Sudeste na última semana de campanha
• Gazeta do Povo · Os números da pesquisa Gerp para presidente no 2º turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 18 17:44 BRT and inflation book reading at 17:36 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).