1. Prediction market

The gap narrows by 5.40 points. In the confirmed reading of October 19 at 15:42 BRT, the winner contract pays 76.85% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 23.05M) and 23.50% for Lula (USD 26.66M). Against the confirmed reading of October 18 at 17:44 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 2.40pp and Lula rises 3.00pp; since the pair's sum went from 99.75 to 100.35, the normalized move is 2.87pp for each side. The gap goes from 58.75pp to 53.35pp. Cumulative volume in the presidential book totals USD 188.17M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 1.50% (USD 0.10M), unchanged against the reading of October 18. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 15:46 BRT reading against the one of October 18 at 17:36 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 70.05% to 71.65% (USD 28 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 14.90% to 14.85% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 13.25% to 11.10% (USD 33 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Five national polls on the same day. AtlasIntel, commissioned by Bloomberg, with 4,998 interviews from October 13 to 18, gives 49.8% to Flávio Bolsonaro and 47.6% to Lula in total votes and 51.1% to 48.9% in valid votes. BTG/Nexus, with 2,002 telephone interviews from October 16 to 18, gives 46.5% to 45.9% in total votes, and Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 telephone interviews on October 16 and 17, 48.3% to 47.5% in total votes and 50.4% to 49.6% in valid votes. PoderData/Aya, with 3,000 automated telephone interviews from October 16 to 18, gives 52% to 48% in valid votes, and DataTrends, from October 15 to 17, 51.5% to 48.5% in valid votes.

Round against round. Against each pollster's previous round, the distance in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor in total votes goes from 5.4 to 2.2 points in AtlasIntel, from 3 to 0.6 in BTG/Nexus and from 1.5 to 0.8 in Futura; in valid votes, from 6.2 to 3 in DataTrends, and PoderData/Aya goes from the tie of October 16 to 4 points. Of the twenty-six national polls conducted after the first round, twenty-three put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, twenty of them by 0.6 to 9 points in total votes and three by 2.2 to 4 points in valid votes; the two Vox Brasil polls put Lula ahead. The poll side of the panel's chart is now AtlasIntel, the largest sample among the three polls of the day that published total votes.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 20/Oct and 23/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Date	Pollster	Sample	Scope	TSE registration	Conf.
20/Oct	Veritá	15,554	national	BR-06396/2026	0.7
20/Oct	Alfa	2,700	national	BR-00820/2026	0.7
21/Oct	Palver	5,000	national	BR-04612/2026	0.7
21/Oct	Gerp	2,400	national	BR-03835/2026	0.7
21/Oct	Quaest	2,154	national	BR-08535/2026	0.9
21/Oct	100 Cidades	2,000	national	BR-06614/2026	0.7
21/Oct	Ideia/Canal Meio	1,500	national	BR-08251/2026	0.6
22/Oct	PoderData	4,000	national	BR-07926/2026	0.7
22/Oct	Datafolha	2,520	national	BR-09709/2026	0.9
22/Oct	Indexa	2,000	national	BR-02348/2026	0.7
23/Oct	Veritá	15,554	national	BR-06070/2026	0.7
23/Oct	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-03259/2026	0.7
23/Oct	DataTrends	2,000	national	BR-03365/2026	0.7
23/Oct	Ipespe	1,500	national	BR-04350/2026	0.6
23/Oct	Alfa	1,200	national	BR-08496/2026	0.6

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 15 national polls in the window; 21 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 4 records marked as national were left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The Band debate. In the first debate of the runoff, on the night of October 18, Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro traded accusations over Banco Master and the INSS fraud, and cited lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger and Daniel Vorcaro. In an assessment carried out during the debate with groups of voters, Quaest gave 82 points to Flávio Bolsonaro and 79 to Lula, a result that O Antagonista also reported. On October 19, Lula again asked Flávio Bolsonaro to open his family's bank records and said he will sign a power of attorney to open his own if his opponent does the same; both campaigns play down the debate's impact. Globo's debate is scheduled for October 23.

Willer Tomaz. On October 18, the Federal Police took to the Supreme Court an investigation into suspected money laundering involving lawyer Willer Tomaz and Flávio Bolsonaro, with Alexandre de Moraes as rapporteur, according to G1; the two deny having business together. On October 19, the Federal Police carried out Operation Linceu, under a Supreme Court warrant, against Humberto Pradera, former head of Information Technology at the STJ, suspected of passing Willer Tomaz information about cases at the court, according to Gazeta do Povo and Metrópoles. Flávio Bolsonaro is not a target of the operation, and Willer Tomaz denies irregular access to rulings.

Meta. On October 19, TSE justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze gave Meta 24 hours to prove it complied with the court's orders on the distribution of content from Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Estadão, and the ANPD gave the company five days to explain the suspension of accounts and the removal of posts, according also to Gazeta do Povo.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × polls: the winner contract pays 76.85% for Flávio Bolsonaro, and the three national polls of the day with total votes put him ahead by 0.6 to 2.2 points, with margins of 1 to 2.2. Price measures the probability of winning on October 25, and the poll measures voting intention during each one's fieldwork.

Poll × poll: with overlapping fieldwork between October 15 and 18, the distance in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor falls at four pollsters and rises at PoderData/Aya, which goes from the tie to 4 points in valid votes.

Debate × polls: the fieldwork of AtlasIntel, BTG/Nexus and PoderData/Aya ended on October 18, the day of the Band debate, and the Quaest assessment during the debate is not a voting-intention poll. In the TSE registry, the first national poll with its entire fieldwork after the debate is 100 Cidades, on October 19 and 20, with release scheduled for October 21.

In summary

The five national polls of October 19 put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, and in four of them the distance is smaller than in the pollster's previous round.
The winner contract takes Flávio Bolsonaro from 79.25% to 76.85%, and the gap closes at 53.35pp.
The Federal Police ran an operation against a former STJ employee linked to Willer Tomaz, and the TSE gave Meta 24 hours to prove equal treatment of the campaigns.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 19 15:42 BRT and inflation book reading at 15:46 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).

October 19, 2026