October 20, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap widens by 7.25 points. In the confirmed reading of October 20 at 19:55 BRT, the winner contract pays 80.10% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 23.76M) and 19.50% for Lula (USD 27.44M). Against the confirmed reading of October 19 at 15:42 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro rises 3.25pp and Lula falls 4.00pp; since the pair's sum went from 100.35 to 99.60, the normalized move is 3.84pp for each side. The gap goes from 53.35pp to 60.60pp. Cumulative volume in the presidential book totals USD 189.68M.

When the price moved. In the recorded readings of the contract's series, Flávio Bolsonaro stood at 77.00% and Lula at 22.50% at 13:30 BRT on October 20; the move to the confirmed reading came after that, and the panel does not link it to any event in that interval.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 2.80% (USD 0.10M), 1.30pp above the reading of October 19. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 20:12 BRT reading against the one of October 19 at 15:46 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 71.65% to 65.20% (USD 28 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 14.85% to 15.50% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 11.10% to 12.15% (USD 33 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Two national polls on the same day. Alfa Inteligência, with 2,700 in-person interviews from October 15 to 19, gives 48.8% to Flávio Bolsonaro and 45.9% to Lula in total votes and 51.5% to 48.5% in valid votes. Real Time Big Data, with 2,000 telephone interviews across the country in the same period, gives 48% to 45% in total votes and 52% to 48% in valid votes; 35% reject Lula and 33% Flávio Bolsonaro. Both pollsters' previous waves predate the first round: the second-round simulation was 43% to 43% in Alfa of September 24 and 46% to 45% for Flávio Bolsonaro in Real Time of October 1.

Twenty-eight after the vote. Of the twenty-eight national polls conducted after the first round, twenty-five put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead, twenty-two of them by 0.6 to 9 points in total votes and three by 2.2 to 4 points in valid votes; the two Vox Brasil polls put Lula ahead, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measured a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's chart is now Alfa, the largest sample between the two polls of the day. Left out of the count is the Gerp daily tracking poll published by Times Brasil, from October 15 to 19, because the release does not give the TSE registration.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 21/Oct and 25/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 26 national polls in the window; 35 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 2 records marked as national were left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The secrecy challenge. On October 20, Lula filed with the TSE and the Supreme Court a document authorizing the lifting of the bank, tax and phone secrecy of himself and his family if Flávio Bolsonaro does the same, and André Mendonça became the rapporteur at the TSE, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Allies of Flávio Bolsonaro argue that he should not accept.

Willer Tomaz and the Ethics Council. A technical note from the Finance Ministry names the lawyer Willer Tomaz, a friend of Flávio Bolsonaro who is investigated with him in the inquiry overseen by Alexandre de Moraes at the Supreme Court, as the country's largest sports-betting gambler in 2025, with R$ 5 billion wagered, according to Folha de S.Paulo and O Globo. The government leader in Congress, Randolfe Rodrigues, is collecting signatures for a complaint to the Senate Ethics Council that seeks the loss of Flávio Bolsonaro's mandate, citing his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro; the document has yet to be filed.

Lulinha. The Federal Police asked for an extension of the inquiries into alleged influence peddling by Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, the president's son, and Justice Edson Fachin is to decide the request. PT lawmakers signed the request for a congressional inquiry (CPI) into him and are gathering signatures for another one targeting Flávio Bolsonaro.

Meta. In response to the 24-hour deadline set by TSE Justice Marco Aurélio Bellizze, Meta told the court that it applies the same criteria to content from Lula and from Flávio Bolsonaro and asked for a meeting with the justice. Globo's debate is scheduled for October 23, and both campaigns confirmed attendance.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The two national polls of October 20 put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 2.9 and 3 points in total votes, and twenty-five of the twenty-eight conducted after the vote put him in front.
2. The winner contract takes Flávio Bolsonaro from 76.85% to 80.10%, and the gap widens from 53.35pp to 60.60pp.
3. Lula filed with the TSE and the Supreme Court the conditional lifting of his records' secrecy, and the Federal Police asked for more time in the inquiries into Lulinha.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Amigo de Flávio, Willer Tomaz movimentou R$ 5 bi em bets e foi maior apostador do Brasil, diz Fazenda
• O Globo · Advogado amigo de Flávio Bolsonaro foi o maior apostador do país em 2025, aponta documento do Ministério da Fazenda
• Valor · Parlamentares coletam assinaturas para denúncia contra Flávio Bolsonaro ao Conselho de Ética
• Folha de S.Paulo · Randolfe denuncia Flávio Bolsonaro no Conselho de Ética do Senado por pedido de R$ 134 milhões a Vorcaro
• G1 · PF pede prorrogação de inquéritos sobre possível tráfico de influência de Lulinha
• Estadão · Fachin deve decidir pedido da PF de prazo extra para investigação sobre Lulinha

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• UOL Notícias · Alfa Inteligência: Flávio tem 48,8% dos votos totais, contra 45,9% de Lula, em empate técnico
• CNN Brasil · Alfa: Flávio tem 51,5% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48,5%
• CartaCapital · Real Time Big Data: Flávio tem 48%; Lula, 45%
• Metrópoles · Lula é rejeitado por 35% e Flávio por 33%, mostra Real Time Big Data
• Times Brasil | CNBC · GERP: Flávio tem 53 pontos e Lula, 47; distância aumenta a cinco dias das eleições
• G1 · Lula protocola documento no TSE e no STF em que diz que libera a divulgação de sigilos dele e de parentes se Flávio também o fizer
• Folha de S.Paulo · Brasília Hoje: Lula formaliza ao TSE abertura de sigilo caso Flávio Bolsonaro entregue seus dados
• O Globo · Aliados de Flávio defendem que senador não 'ceda' à pressão de campanha de Lula pela abertura de sigilos
• O Globo · Petistas assinam CPI sobre Lulinha e desafiam bolsonaristas a assinarem comissão que mira Flávio e Vorcaro
• Poder360 · PT reúne 100 assinaturas para abrir CPI contra Flávio Bolsonaro
• JOTA Info · Meta diz que aplica critérios idênticos para Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro e pede reunião no TSE
• Valor Econômico · Meta diz ao TSE que dá tratamento igual às campanhas de Flávio e Lula e pede reunião com ministro
• UOL · Outro Canal: Lula e Flávio Bolsonaro confirmam presença e Globo fará debate no segundo turno

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 20 19:55 BRT and inflation book reading at 20:12 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).