October 21, 2026

1. Prediction market

The gap narrows by 3.40 points. In the confirmed reading of October 21 at 18:28 BRT, the winner contract pays 78.70% for Flávio Bolsonaro (USD 24.38M) and 21.50% for Lula (USD 28.10M). Against the confirmed reading of October 20 at 19:55 BRT, Flávio Bolsonaro falls 1.40pp and Lula rises 2.00pp; since the pair's sum went from 99.60 to 100.20, the normalized move is 1.88pp for each side. The gap goes from 60.60pp to 57.20pp. Cumulative volume in the presidential book totals USD 190.93M, and the largest volume in the book is still Lula's.

Supreme Court and inflation. The contract on the impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 stands at 3.55% (USD 0.10M), 0.75pp above the reading of October 20. In the 2026 inflation contract, in the 18:37 BRT reading against the one of October 20 at 20:12 BRT, the 5.00% to 5.49% range goes from 65.20% to 71.20% (USD 28 thousand), the 5.50% to 5.99% range from 15.50% to 14.60% (USD 21 thousand) and the 4.50% to 4.99% range from 12.15% to 11.30% (USD 33 thousand).

2. What the polling firms registered

Five national polls on the same day. Quaest, with 2,154 in-person interviews from October 17 to 20, gives 45% to Flávio Bolsonaro and 44% to Lula in total votes. Meio/Ideia, with 1,500 telephone interviews from October 15 to 19, gives 48% to 46% in total votes and 51.1% to 48.9% in valid votes. Palver, with 5,000 online interviews, gives 50% to 48% in total votes and 51% to 49% in valid votes. Futura/100% Cidades, with 2,000 telephone interviews on October 19 and 20, gives 48.9% to 46.8% in total votes and 51.1% to 48.9% in valid votes. Veritá, with 15,554 interviews from October 15 to 19, gives 49.7% to 48.2% in total votes and 50.7% to 49.3% in valid votes.

Round against round. Against each pollster's previous round, the distance in Flávio Bolsonaro's favor in total votes falls from 2 to 1 point in Quaest, rises from 1 to 2 points in Palver and from 0.8 to 2.1 points in Futura; in valid votes, it falls from 2.2 to 1.4 points in Veritá. In Quaest, 52% would not vote for Flávio Bolsonaro and 47% would not vote for Lula. Of the thirty-three national polls conducted after the first round, thirty put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead; the two Vox Brasil polls put Lula ahead, and PoderData/Aya of October 16 measured a tie in valid votes. The poll side of the panel's chart is now Veritá, the largest sample of the day. Left out of the count is the Gerp daily tracking poll, from October 15 to 19, because the releases do not give a TSE registration.

Polling calendar, next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between 22/Oct and 25/Oct. Appearing in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because pollsters can delay or cancel a release. Filters applied: national scope and sample of 1,000 or more. Each registration links to the TSE public record.

Source: public TSE record via the AFOS API. Samples of 3,000 or more in bold. The table lists 21 national polls in the window; 32 records from the same period were left out by scope or by sample, and 2 records marked as national were left out because the record itself does not support the release date or the scope. The status is registered, not published.

3. What the press covered

The secrecy challenge. On October 21, Flávio Bolsonaro said he accepts Lula's challenge to open his bank and phone records, with conditions: among them, the opening of the records of Lula's relatives and of his former chief of staff, Marco Aurélio Santana Ribeiro, known as Marcola, and of data on the Presidency's corporate card, according to CartaCapital. His campaign formalized the conditions with the TSE, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Lula had filed with the TSE and the Supreme Court, on October 20, the authorization to open his own records if Flávio Bolsonaro did the same.

The TSE and WhatsApp. TSE vice-president André Mendonça drafted a resolution to block WhatsApp channels with more than 200 thousand users in the 48 hours before the vote, according to Folha de S.Paulo. On October 21, the court's president, Kassio Nunes Marques, said the court will not consider the proposal in this election, according to O Globo.

Meta and the debate. UN experts said Meta's conduct may compromise the Brazilian election and asked the company for explanations, according to CartaCapital and Estadão. Globo's debate, the last before the vote, is scheduled for October 23.

4. Divergences of the day

In summary

1. The five national polls of October 21 put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead by 1 to 2.1 points in total votes, and thirty of the thirty-three conducted after the vote put him in front.
2. The winner contract takes Flávio Bolsonaro from 80.10% to 78.70%, and the gap goes from 60.60pp to 57.20pp.
3. Flávio Bolsonaro answered the secrecy challenge with conditions formalized with the TSE, and the court's president dropped the draft on WhatsApp channels for this election.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

• Folha de S.Paulo · Flávio Bolsonaro diz que abre sigilo se Lula abrir o de Marcola, e campanha formaliza condição ao TSE
• Folha de S.Paulo · Kassio e Mendonça fizeram minuta para vetar canais políticos de WhatsApp antes do 2º turno; chefe do TSE descarta medida
• O Globo · Presidente do TSE deixa proposta de restringir canais no WhatsApp para depois das eleições após repercussão negativa
• CartaCapital · Especialistas da ONU questionam a conduta da Meta na eleição brasileira
• Estadão · Especialistas da ONU dizem que atuação da Meta pode comprometer eleição e pedem reparações

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect, clique resolve à matéria):

• Metrópoles · Quaest: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 45% e Lula, 44%, no 2º turno
• CNN Brasil · Meio/Ideia: Flávio tem 51,1% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48,9%
• Congresso em Foco · Flávio Bolsonaro tem 50% e Lula, 48%, indica pesquisa Palver
• Rádio Corredor · Pesquisa Futura: Flávio tem 48,9% e Lula 46,8% no 2º turno
• Rádio Itatiaia · Futura: Flávio tem 51,1% dos votos válidos no 2º turno; Lula, 48,9%
• R7 · Veritá: Flávio Bolsonaro tem 50,7% dos votos válidos, e Lula, 49,3% no 2º turno
• Bahia Já · Política - TRACKING DA GERP APONTA FLÁVIO BOLSONARO 53% E LULA DA SULVA COM 47%
• CartaCapital · Flávio Bolsonaro impõe condições para aceitar desafio de Lula e abrir sigilos

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (quotes via the AFOS proxy, confirmed reading of Oct 21 18:28 BRT and inflation book reading at 18:37 BRT), TSE registry (official election polls).