Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

The presidential market, whose cumulative total volume stands at USD 113.8M, pushed the gap to its widest point of the cycle. Flávio Bolsonaro retreated 0.85pp to 25.65% (USD 7.5M), his largest daily decline of the week and his third consecutive session of losses, while Lula remained flat at 60.50% (USD 7.5M) for the second straight trading day. The distance between the two widened from +34.00pp to +34.85pp.

It is worth separating what this number says from what it does not. The gap widened because the challenger fell, not because the favorite rose: Lula's price did not move a hundredth of a point over two trading days. A gap that grows through loss of conviction in one side is different information from a gap that grows through gain in the other, and absent new national polling or a ballot event, Flávio's retreat is market momentum, not a reaction to a dated fact.

In the third way, Renan Santos gave up 0.15pp in the winner, to 8.15% (USD 8.2M), but delivered the largest isolated variation in the panel's sub-market: the 3rd place in the 1º turno fell 4.00pp, from 68.50% to 64.50% (USD 144 thousand). Ronaldo Caiado retreated to 1.35% (USD 5.0M) and gave way to 16.00% in the same sub-market. Michelle Bolsonaro remained stable at 1.85% (USD 9.1M), Romeu Zema rose to 0.65% (USD 4.4M) and Fernando Haddad to 0.55% (USD 6.3M), returning part of the previous day's decline without anything occurring between the two endpoints-the typical behavior of residual names in a thin book.

In the second place in the first round, Flávio yielded to 81.00% (USD 181 thousand), where he nonetheless remains comfortably ahead, with Renan in second at 12.40%. In the Senate by seats, PL remains comfortably at 85.50% (USD 252 thousand), ahead of MDB (12.80%). Note the permanent anomaly of the panel: Tarcísio de Freitas is worth 0.15% in the presidential race with USD 13.5M in cumulative volume, the largest in the book-a reminder that volume measures negotiated history, not current conviction.

The impeachment of STF minister market rose 0.35pp, to 3.75% (USD 83 thousand), the largest relative gain in the panel, but remains within the noise range and without any new individual minister action that would explain the move. The methodological caveat is decisive here: with cumulative volume orders of magnitude below the USD 7.5M of the presidential race, a variation of this scale does not sustain narrative. In 2026 inflation, the modal range remains 5.00% to 5.49%, now at 33.70% (USD 8.6 thousand), versus 39.60% in the previous reading-greater dispersion around the Treasury's official projection (5.1%), above the Central Bank's target.

2. What polling institutes recorded

This was the third consecutive day without new national polling. The most recent polls of national scope remain the Genial/Quaest of July 15 (n=2,004, reliability 5) and the PoderData/Aya of July 16 (n=2,400). In both, Lula is identical: 40% in the 1º turno and 45% in the 2º turno. The entire disagreement lies in Flávio, measured between 28% (Quaest) and 34% (PoderData) in the 1º turno-six points that characterize a house effect, not electorate movement. The VEJA synthesized the race after this week's numbers, and the Estadão recorded the neither-nor scenario, with dissatisfaction regarding the government combined with rejection of Flávio.

An important editorial distinction of the day, because many headlines about Datafolha circulated. The institute did not release a new presidential poll. The TSE registration shows fieldwork between July 22 and 24, with publication scheduled for July 24, and the national poll aggregator lists no Datafolha presidential poll in July. Weekend articles anticipated the survey in the field, without numbers. Registration at TSE is not publication, and the difference between the two is the kind of error that destroys a panel's credibility.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

Polls registered at TSE with publication scheduled between July 20 and July 26. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
Jul 20	Data Census Potiguar	2,000	state	BR-01168/2026	0.7
Jul 21	Real Time Big Data	2,000	national	BR-09247/2026	0.9
Jul 21	Instituto Indexa	2,000	national	BR-02904/2026	0.7
Jul 21	Instituto Gazeta	2,000	state	BR-07290/2026	0.7
Jul 22	Gerp	2,000	national	BR-05026/2026	0.7
Jul 24	Datafolha	2,004	national	BR-01166/2026	0.9
Jul 24	Ranking Brasil	2,000	state	BR-08403/2026	0.7

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. Status registered ≠ published; confirmation of effective release requires verification from two primary sources before citing numbers.

3. What the press covered

The political fact of the day was electoral and came from outside the two main camps. Ciro Gomes, pre-candidate for governor of Ceará, cited Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos as possibilities for a presidential vote and did not mention Flávio Bolsonaro. In an interview given on Saturday, July 18, he said he gets along very well with Caiado and would vote for him without any difficulty, and that Renan seems to him like someone speaking truthful things. The O Globo reported that Ciro is at the center of the dispute between Flávio and Michelle: the PL alliance in Ceará with him opened an internal crisis, with Michelle against the agreement and Flávio in favor. The Gazeta do Povo treated the gesture as a signal of support with Flávio off the radar.

Starting July 20, the deadline opens for party conventions, which runs until August 5 and is the first structural event of the electoral calendar, when pre-candidacies become registered slates. G1 explained how it works and the InfoMoney published the calendar. The deadline demands definition of platforms from all camps, and in the case of PL this happens with Jair Bolsonaro under house arrest and Flávio suspended from visits to his father by a decision of July 13, valid until mid-October.

In the third-way group, Michelle Bolsonaro ruled out being vice president to Romeu Zema, saying there is no possibility whatsoever, and Novo arrives at the opening of conventions without a running mate defined. Zema defended privatizing Petrobras and Banco do Brasil in a potential government.

On the government side, the agenda remains stalled. The Poder360 counted more than 20 defeats of Lula in Congress in the 3rd term, and the Estadão recorded a credit package of R$ 145 bi outside the fiscal framework in an election year. On the international front, the Folha published assessment from a Brazilianist scholar that Trump could interfere in the election to favor Flávio.

Regarding the Master case, a methodological note. A record of new remarks from Ronaldo Caiado circulated, demanding that Flávio explain his relationship with Daniel Vorcaro. AFOS Analytics was unable to confirm this statement by a second independent source and therefore does not treat it as a new fact of the day. What is verified is that Caiado has already made equivalent public demands in May and June 2026, stating that the matter would be up to Flávio to explain to his voters, his party, and Brazil. Pressure on this flank has been coming from within the right itself for months, and it is precisely because it is old and known wear-and-tear that the market does not reprice it.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × narrative (Renan): on the same trading session in which Ciro Gomes mentioned him by name as a voting possibility, Renan Santos lost 4.00pp in 3rd place in the 1º turno, from 68.50% to 64.50%, the largest isolated variation on the panel. Political gesture on one side, real money reducing the bet on his placement on the other. AFOS does not draw a causal link between the two events; there is no evidence that the market reacted to Ciro's gesture and the most likely scenario is that they are independent on the same day. The record matters because narrative and price pointed in opposite directions.

Market × narrative (Caiado): Ciro's gesture toward Caiado was the most explicit political signal he has received in the cycle, and his price did not move in either direction, remaining at 1.35%. The honest reading is that the market does not treat a declaration of support as a priceable fact at 77 days from the election, not that the gesture was politically irrelevant.

Market × polling (Renan): Renan trades at 8.15% in the winner market against 6% in the best poll he has received (PoderData July 16) and 3% in Quaest (July 15, the most reliable one). He remains the largest relative distortion on the panel, and the two firms still disagree on who leads the third way.

Gap composition: the Lula × Flávio gap reached +34.85pp, the widest of the cycle, but grew entirely through the opponent's decline: Lula did not move in two sessions. A gap that widens through loss of conviction on one side is not the same information as a gap that widens through gain on the other.

In summary

The Lula × Flávio gap reached the widest point of the cycle, +34.85pp, but through unfavorable decomposition to the simple reading: Flávio fell 0.85pp in his third consecutive session of losses, and Lula remained flat at 60.50% for the second session. No poll or ballot event explains the movement.
Third day without new national polling, and the week ahead resolves this: Indexa and Real Time Big Data on July 21, Gerp on July 22 and Datafolha on July 24, the latter still in the field. Weekend headlines about Datafolha anticipate the survey, they do not publish numbers.
The day saw two relevant political gestures that the market did not price in: Ciro Gomes's nod toward Caiado and Renan, with Flávio left out, and Michelle's refusal to team up with Zema. Starting July 20, party conventions begin to convert pre-candidacy into registered ticket.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click to resolve to article):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 19, 18:31 BRT), TSE registry (official election surveys).

July 19, 2026