1. Prediction market

With 68 days to the first round, total accumulated volume in the presidential market is around USD 116.26M (Polymarket via the AFOS proxy, capture of Jul 28 at 6:13pm BRT, cleared by the double-reading lock, and re-checked at 7:13pm with no relevant change in the presidential book). Lula rose 1.00pp to 63.50% (USD 7.69M). Flávio Bolsonaro held at 23.85% (USD 7.69M) for a second session, and the gap between the two went to +39.65pp.

Lula's number needs one exact sentence, and it is not "new record". In the full series of the contract, 63.50% matches the ceiling of the AFOS series, marked on July 26 at 22:30 UTC, and does not pass it. The widest gap in the series is still +39.80pp, from those same early hours, above today's +39.65pp. This synthesis draws that distinction because it got exactly this wrong in the July 26 edition and corrected it on July 27.

In the chasing pack, the day belonged to Renan Santos, and downwards. He fell 0.80pp in the winner contract, to 8.75% (USD 8.58M), losing the 9% handle. Ronaldo Caiado fell 0.05pp, to 1.90% (USD 5.19M), Jair Bolsonaro held at 1.05% (USD 5.26M), Romeu Zema at 0.55% (USD 4.55M), Michelle Bolsonaro rose 0.05pp to 0.45% (USD 9.32M), Fernando Haddad held at 0.25% (USD 6.38M) and Tarcísio de Freitas at 0.15% (USD 13.65M), still with the highest accumulated volume of any contract in the book, a legacy anomaly that measures traded history and not current conviction.

The strong move is in the sub-markets, and it separates two things that look like one. In second place in the first round, Flávio rose 1.50pp, to 78.00% (USD 4.33M in the book), and Renan fell 0.50pp, to 12.15%. In third place, Renan gave up 1.50pp, to 60.50%, and Caiado went from a range of 19.00% to 19.50% up to 26.50%, in a book of USD 483 thousand, which adds 11.00pp over two sessions counting the 15.50% of July 26. In other words, the market is repricing who finishes third, not who wins the election: in the presidential contract, Caiado fell. Renan, by contrast, fell in all three contracts where he appears, which is different from the previous day's mixed signals.

In the other markets, impeachment of an STF justice before 2027 fell 0.60pp, to 2.80% (USD 83 thousand), breaking four essentially flat sessions, and the direction is down, meaning less risk priced in. In the Senate by seats, the PL held at 71.00% (USD 292 thousand in the book) and the MDB fell 1.00pp, to 17.25%. In the 2026 inflation market, the modal band flipped: 4.50% to 4.99% went to 39.25%, against 26.30% the day before, and moved ahead of the 5.00% to 5.49% band, which sat at 38.15%, in a book of USD 79 thousand. Two caveats before any reading: the book is small, and the inflation market is not covered by the double-reading lock, which watches only the five electoral contracts.

2. What the institutes recorded

No national poll was released on July 28. The most recent national reading is still BTG/Nexus of July 27, with Lula at 42% and Flávio at 33% in the first round and 47% x 43% in the runoff.

The day belonged to state-level polls, which by scope rule do not enter this panel's national set, and the three together describe a geographically split race. In Pernambuco, Genial/Quaest gives Lula 55% x Flávio 21% in the first round, with n=900, fieldwork July 22 to 26, a 3pp margin and filings BR-03810/2026 and PE-09649/2026 (CNN Brasil). In Minas Gerais, the same firm gives a statistical tie in both rounds: 30% x 29% in the first and 38% x 35% against Flávio in the runoff, with Romeu Zema numerically ahead of Lula by 39% x 37%, all inside the 3pp margin, with n=1,482 and filings BR-09333/2026 and MG-03490/2026 (Metrópoles, Money Times). In Rio de Janeiro, Real Time Big Data gives Flávio 46% x Lula 42% in the runoff, with n=2,000, fieldwork July 23 to 27 and filing BR-06074/2026 (Poder360, UOL). Adding up the published state polls, Poder360 records Lula leading in 12 states and Flávio in 7, and points to Goiás as the only state where the third way looks competitive, with 3.2% of the national electorate (Poder360, Poder360). It is the geographic counterweight to the national statistical tie BTG/Nexus measured for Caiado, and the panel shows both with the same prominence.

A gender cut of the July 24 Datafolha poll also circulated: among women, Lula has 50% and Flávio 40% in the runoff, and his rejection is the highest in that group (Estadão, Poder360). It is a cut of a poll already published, not a fresh measurement.

An absence is data too. AtlasIntel had publication declared to the TSE for July 28, with n=5,000 and fieldwork July 22 to 27, filing BR-08602/2026, and would be the largest national sample in the set. It was not released by the close of this capture, and no story about it appeared among the 927 items collected that day. A TSE filing is not a guarantee of publication, and this synthesis does not cite numbers from a poll that did not come out.

📅 Polling calendar — next 7 days

Polls registered with the TSE scheduled for publication between Jul 29 and Aug 4. Inclusion in the table does not mean publication is confirmed, because institutes can delay or cancel a release, as AtlasIntel showed on July 28. Filter applied: sample ≥ 1,000. Each filing is linked to the TSE public search.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE filing	Conf.
Jul 29	Alfa Inteligência	2,700	not declared	BR-00972/2026	0.7
Jul 29	AtlasIntel	1,800	state	BR-05848/2026	0.8
Jul 30	PoderData	2,400	national	BR-07845/2026	0.7
Jul 31	Alfa Inteligência	2,700	not declared	BR-04488/2026	0.7
Jul 31	Vox Brasil	2,100	national	BR-01084/2026	0.7
Aug 2	Veritá	2,010	not declared	BR-02249/2026	0.7

Source: public TSE registry via the AFOS API. 🔥 marks samples ≥ 3,000, and this window has none. The window holds 24 filings with a sample ≥ 1,000; the table shows the 2 national ones plus the 4 largest among the rest, and the other 18, all state-level, were left out for legibility and not for lack of a filing. On the Veritá poll of Aug 2, the scope appears as not declared in the structured field, but the text of the filing describes the electorate of a single federal unit. Status "registered ≠ published": confirming an actual release requires verification from two primary sources before any number is cited.

3. What the press covered

The judicial fact of the day is one of calendar. Flávio Bolsonaro missed the testimony scheduled at the Federal Police on July 28 and delivered a written defence to the STF, in the inquiry into alleged slander against Lula. With that delivery, the testimony was cancelled, and Alexandre de Moraes ordered the PGR to weigh in (CartaCapital, CNN Brasil, G1). It now falls to the PGR to charge, request further investigation or recommend the case be shelved. On the same institutional front, judges' and lawyers' associations responded formally to Javier Milei's attack on Moraes at the PL convention.

In the Master case, the news has two parts of different weight. The first is the delay: justice Kassio Nunes Marques has for four months been sitting on the writ that decides whether the Banco Master congressional inquiry is installed in the Senate, and Edson Fachin rejected, as filed out of time and without ruling on the merits, the request by four senators to remove him from the case (O Globo, Tribuna da Internet). On the same day, the justice minister refused to lift the secrecy on Vorcaro's visits to the Federal Police. The second part is one newsroom's exclusive reporting: Valor Econômico reported that André Mendonça authorised the Federal Police to trace abroad the assets of Daniel Vorcaro and others involved (Valor Econômico). It enters attributed to the outlet, with no independent second source by the close of this synthesis.

Abroad, it was reported that Trump will extend the national emergency over Brazil by one year, with the notice due in the Federal Register on July 29 (Estadão). The extension is a requirement of the US National Emergencies Act and, on its own, creates no new sanction and reinstates no tariff, even though it is the legal basis for the surcharges (Metrópoles). On the Brazilian side, the government filed a complaint at the WTO against the tariff push on July 27.

In the race for running mates, with the August 5 deadline in view, Michelle Bolsonaro again tried to place an ally in the contest for Flávio's ticket, and at Novo a senator and a political scientist are among those under consideration for Zema's ticket. Neither name is confirmed.

4. Divergences of the day

Price × absence of polling: the favourite's price rose 1.00pp on a day when no national poll was published. There is no polling anchor to explain the move, and the same session carried four candidates for a cause: the extension of the US emergency, the WTO filing, three state polls and the echo of a statement on re-election probability made on July 24. Picking one would invent precision the data does not have. This synthesis records the absence of an anchor, which is the honest information available.

National average × state map: the national reading gives Lula a comfortable cushion, and the day's three state polls show why that cushion is an average and not a uniform lead. In Pernambuco he has 55% against 21%; in Minas he is in a statistical tie and behind Zema in the runoff; in Rio he is behind Flávio. None of them enters this panel's national set, and all three matter for understanding what the average hides.

Third-place contract × presidential contract: Caiado rose from the range of 19.00% to 19.50% up to 26.50% in third place in the first round and, in the same session, fell 0.05pp in the presidential contract. Those are opposite moves by the same name on the same day, and the correct reading is that the market is repricing the race for third place, not the race for the presidency. Add to that the counterweight from Poder360: his competitiveness is concentrated in Goiás, worth 3.2% of the electorate.

Institutional pile-up × impeachment price: Tuesday had the PGR brought in by Moraes, judiciary associations responding to a foreign head of state's attack, and the Master congressional inquiry stalled for four months behind a writ that goes unjudged. Even so, the market on the impeachment of an STF justice fell 0.60pp, to 2.80%. Recording the direction is mandatory; building a narrative on it is not, because the whole book adds up to USD 83 thousand and moves on very little money.

Correction on the record: earlier today, in the panel, this synthesis published that the 60% re-election probability attributed to the Quaest director had been stated at the Lide luncheon of July 27. Source verification pointed the other way: the remark is from Expert XP on July 24, the figure is "close to 60%" and not exactly 60%, and therefore the subtraction against the market's 63.50% does not hold (InfoMoney). The panel was corrected before this publication, and the cross-reading itself remains on the record: they are two independent estimates of the same quantity, probability of victory, which this panel had never had before, and they now appear side by side, without subtraction.

In summary

The price rose with no polling. Lula went to 63.50%, matching the ceiling of the series without passing it, on a day with no national poll at all. The absence of an anchor is the record, not the cause.
The third-place realignment entered its second day. In the third-place contract, Caiado added 11.00pp over two sessions and Renan fell in all three where he appears, while Caiado's presidential contract moved the other way.
Two absences count as much as the presences: the AtlasIntel poll with n=5,000, registered with the TSE, did not come out, and the Master congressional inquiry remains dammed for four months behind a ruling that is not delivered.

Fontes consultadas

matérias com link direto para a notícia (veículos âncora):

matérias secundárias (URL Google News redirect — clique resolve à matéria):

Fontes técnicas: Polymarket (live quotes via the AFOS proxy, fetched Jul 28, 6:13pm BRT, re-checked at 7:13pm), TSE registry (official electoral polls).

July 28, 2026