Name: AFOS Analytics Election Data
Creator: AFOS Analytics
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

1. Prediction market

The presidential market repeated on Monday the pattern that dominates the week, with a reversal of sign. All the movement came again from the opponent, but this time upward: Flávio Bolsonaro rose 0.60pp, to 26.25% (USD 7.5M), recovering part of three consecutive sessions of losses through July 19, while Lula remained flat at 60.50% (USD 7.5M) for the third trading session. The gap between the two narrowed to +34.25pp, still well below the cycle peak of +39.5pp registered on July 3. There was neither polling nor exit data behind the movement, which characterizes it as momentum oscillation rather than reaction to an event. The total accumulated volume in presidential market amounts to approximately USD 114.0M, the base of real money that sustains the reading.

On the third way, Renan Santos rose 0.50pp, to 8.65% (USD 8.2M), consolidating himself as the third largest price in the book, behind only Lula and Flávio. It is the most didactic distortion on the panel: he is worth 8.65% in the market against a ceiling of 6% in the latest polling. Ronaldo Caiado remained stable at 1.35% (USD 5.0M) and Romeu Zema at 0.65% (USD 4.4M), both without polling evidence to justify the price, in a contrast that persists, since both measure 4% of voting intention and are worth a fraction of that in the market.

On the sub-markets of the presidential panel, Flávio remains comfortably in 2nd place of the 1º turno, at 79.00%, the bet that he is the right opponent to Lula in an eventual runoff. Michelle Bolsonaro remained stable at 1.45% (USD 9.1M) in the winner, and Fernando Haddad at 0.55% (USD 6.3M), residual name without a priceable presidential candidacy.

The impeachment market for STF minister before 2027 fell 0.80pp, to 2.95% (USD 83 thousand), reversing the recent rise and returning near the floor. The methodological caveat is decisive here: with accumulated volume of about USD 83 thousand, orders of magnitude below the USD 7.5M of the presidential, the variation does not sustain narrative and reads as book noise. In the Senate by seats, the PL remains comfortably ahead at 85.50%. In the 2026 annual inflation market, the modal range remains at 5.00% to 5.50%, priced at 36.85%, with the center of the distribution above the target ceiling.

2. What the institutes registered

It was the fourth consecutive day without new national voting intention polling. The two latest readings remain Genial/Quaest from July 15 (reliability 5), which gave 1º turno 40% to 28% and 2º turno 45% to 37%, and PoderData/Aya from July 16 (reliability 3), which gave 1º turno 40% to 34% and 2º turno 45% to 43%, empate técnico. Lula is identical in both readings, with all disagreement concentrated on Flávio.

What circulated on Monday was an expectation poll, not an intention poll: the Quaest disclosed that 55% of respondents believe in Lula's victory, against 25% who think Flávio will be elected. It is perception about the result, a measure distinct from whom the person will vote for, and does not replace national intention polls. The TSE, meanwhile, confirmed 158.7 million eligible voters in 2026, with an electorate older than in previous cycles.

The coming week concentrates the missing ballot test. According to a survey from Exame on the next rounds, Real Time Big Data and Indexa have publication scheduled for July 21, Gerp for July 22, and Datafolha for July 24, this one with fieldwork between July 22 and 24. The usual distinction applies: registration with the TSE is not publication, and confirmation of numbers requires actual release.

📅 Polling calendar - next 7 days

National polls registered with the TSE with publication scheduled between July 21–27. Inclusion in the table does not mean confirmed publication; institutes may delay or cancel release. Filter applied: national scope, sample ≥ 1,000. Each protocol linked to TSE public consultation.

Date	Institute	Sample	Scope	TSE Protocol	Conf.
July 21	Real Time Big Data	2,000	national	BR-09247/2026	0.9
July 21	Indexa Pesquisas	2,000	national	BR-02904/2026	0.7
July 22	Gerp	2,000	national	BR-05026/2026	0.7
July 24	Datafolha	2,004	national	BR-01166/2026	0.9

Source: public registry TSE via AFOS Analytics API. No national poll with sample ≥ 3,000 registered for the window. Beyond these, dozens of state polls have fieldwork or publication scheduled for the week, outside the scope of the national panel. Status "registered ≠ published": confirmation of actual release requires verification of two primary sources before citation of numbers.

3. What the press covered

The day's focus was on the electoral calendar. The party conventions opened this Monday, a mandatory stage in which pre-candidacies become registered slates. According to CNN Brasil and InfoMoney, the period runs until August 5, with a final deadline for candidate registration on August 15 and the 1º turno scheduled for October 4. It is the first structural milestone of the cycle since the definition of the field.

In the opposition camp, the week of conventions arrives with an open slate. According to coverage of the opening of the period, Flávio Bolsonaro is to hold his own convention on Saturday, July 25, still without a running mate defined, with PL having to close the composition in a scenario where Jair Bolsonaro is imprisoned and the senator remains suspended from visits to his father until mid-October. Romeu Zema also arrives at the opening without a running mate, after Michelle Bolsonaro publicly ruled out joining his slate.

On the institutional agenda, the Banco Master case continues as a background development, with no new fact verified this Monday that would justify treating it as news of the day. Federal Police investigation revealed million-dollar transfers from the bank to a consulting firm, in the wake of a process that has been running for months. In government, the congressional agenda remains stalled, with more than 20 defeats for Lula in his third term tallied by Poder360, four provisional measures that lapsed in July, and a R$ 145 billion credit package outside the fiscal framework, according to Estadão.

4. Divergences of the day

Market × poll: Polymarket gives Lula a 60.50% probability of victory, while the most recent poll, PoderData from July 16, places the 2º turno in Empate técnico (45% to 43%). The margin that real money prices is larger than what the freshest ballot measures, and this level distance is the central tension of the panel.

Market × ballot, in the third way: Renan Santos is worth 8.65% in the winner market, the third largest price in the book, against a ceiling of 6% in the best poll it has ever received and 3% in the most reliable one of the week. It is the portrait of a name that the market prices as a tail bet well above what declared voting intention sustains.

Expectation × intention: Quaest disclosed that 55% believe in Lula's victory and 25% in Flávio's, a perception measure that echoes the market's direction, but which should not be confused with voting intention, where the distance between the two is much smaller.

In summary

Party conventions opened on July 20 and run until August 5, the first structural event of the cycle, with Flávio and Zema arriving at the opening still without a running mate defined.
The market repeated last week's pattern with inverted sign: Flávio rose 0.60pp to 26.25% and Lula remained flat at 60.50%, narrowing the gap to 34.25pp, still far from the July 3 peak, without poll or ballot trigger.
Fourth day without new national voting intention poll, with the level divergence intact: the market gives Lula well above the Empate técnico that PoderData measures in the 2º turno, and the ballot test returns already on July 21.-

Sources consulted

articles with direct link to news (anchor outlets):

Secondary stories (Google News redirect URL - click resolves to article):

Technical sources: Polymarket (live quotes via AFOS proxy, fetched July 20 20:12 BRT), TSE registration (official election surveys).

July 20, 2026